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Brazil's presidential election will be decided in a second round on 25 October after right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round of voting but fell short of the outright majority needed to claim victory. With 98.81% of ballots counted, Bolsonaro had secured 47.24% of the vote, while incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva trailed with 44.91%. Because no candidate crossed the 50% threshold, the two men will face each other in a decisive run-off later this month.
The result represents a striking turnaround in a race that many observers had expected Lula to lead comfortably. Polling during the campaign had consistently placed the 80-year-old incumbent slightly ahead, and his supporters had hoped he could avoid a second round altogether. Instead, Bolsonaro outperformed expectations, energising Brazil's right-wing electorate and positioning himself as the favourite heading into the final stretch.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding a failed coup attempt following his defeat in the 2022 election. The younger Bolsonaro entered the race with the explicit endorsement of his father, who was barred from seeking re-election even before his conviction. The family's political influence remains formidable: on the same day as the presidential vote, Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelle, won election to the Senate.
The campaign has once again polarised Brazil, with voters divided over competing visions of the country's future. Sovereignty, crime, the economy and corruption emerged as the dominant issues, mirroring the deeply entrenched left-right split that has defined Brazilian politics for more than two decades. Lula, who is seeking an unprecedented fourth term, remains strongest in Brazil's poorer northeast, among low-income households, Catholic voters and women. Bolsonaro draws his support primarily from the wealthier south, as well as from evangelical Christians.
Speaking after casting his ballot, Lula framed the choice facing Brazilians in stark terms, warning that the election represented a contest between democracy and what he called "barbarism." Bolsonaro, meanwhile, said he wanted to "free the Brazilian people," casting his candidacy as a liberation from the political establishment that has governed Brazil in recent years. The contrasting messages underscore the depth of the divide that will shape the run-off campaign.
Lula's political history is long and consequential. First elected in 2002 and re-elected in 2006, he returned to power in 2022 for a non-consecutive third term, defeating Jair Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points — the narrowest presidential result in Brazil's history. That contest was followed by the 8 January 2023 riots, when Bolsonaro supporters vandalised government buildings in the capital, Brasília, in an attempt to overturn the election outcome. The fallout from those events continues to loom over Brazilian politics.
Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged that, if elected, he would grant amnesty to his father and to the supporters who were involved in the January 8th riots. That promise has become a central rallying cry for his base and a lightning rod for criticism from opponents, who view it as an attempt to erase accountability for an attack on democratic institutions. The amnesty question is likely to feature prominently in the coming weeks of campaigning.
The first-round outcome also has significant implications for Brazil's foreign relations, particularly with the United States. A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would probably see Brazil align more closely with Washington, potentially joining the US-led "Shield of Americas" coalition against narco-trafficking. He has nonetheless committed to maintaining what he describes as an "economically pragmatic" relationship with China, which has surpassed the US as Brazil's largest trading partner and remains a vital customer for Brazilian soy and beef exports.
The campaign was marked by repeated tensions over alleged foreign interference. Lula made "sovereignty" a central pillar of his platform and at times accused the United States of attempting to influence the election, pledging to increase defence spending as a result. In July, Brazil refused visas for two US State Department officials whom Brazilian authorities accused of trying to sow doubt in the country's electoral system — a claim the US dismissed as "baseless." The dispute followed reports that Flávio Bolsonaro had told foreign diplomats that Brazil's voting machines shared the same origin as Venezuela's, an assertion that is false.
On Sunday, the president of Brazil's supreme electoral court stated that no evidence of international interference had been found in the election, seeking to reassure the public about the integrity of the vote. The announcement came after a campaign in which questions about the reliability of Brazil's electoral system were repeatedly raised, echoing the disinformation that surrounded the 2022 contest and the subsequent riots.
Relations between Brazil and the US have also been strained by the legal troubles of Jair Bolsonaro. Last year, Donald Trump cited the former president's coup trial as justification for imposing tariffs on Brazil and for sanctioning several senior Brazilian officials and judges. Earlier this year, Flávio Bolsonaro successfully lobbied Washington to designate Brazil's two largest gangs as terrorist organisations, a move that highlighted his growing influence in US policy circles.
Corruption emerged as another defining theme of the campaign, following a scandal involving jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, who orchestrated one of Brazil's largest financial frauds and became entangled with senior figures across the political spectrum. Flávio Bolsonaro acknowledged that he had asked Vorcaro to bankroll a biopic about his father after voice recordings surfaced in which he could be heard requesting 134 million reais, equivalent to about $25.9m or £19.5m. The revelation raised uncomfortable questions about the financing of his political projects and the company he keeps.
Lula was also drawn into the fallout, albeit indirectly. Police suggested that Vorcaro had reached out to Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes to seek assistance in avoiding arrest. Moraes has denied any wrongdoing, and no evidence has emerged to substantiate the allegation against him. The episode nonetheless fuelled public concerns about the influence of money and personal connections in Brazilian politics, reinforcing the anti-corruption messaging that has long animated the country's conservative movement.
With the first round now behind them, both candidates face a compressed and intense period of campaigning ahead of the 25 October run-off. The majority of Latin America has shifted toward right-wing presidents aligned with the Trump administration, and the second round will determine whether Brazil — the region's largest country and economy — follows that trend or remains a counterweight. For Bolsonaro, the momentum appears to be on his side, particularly given that several right-wing alternatives eliminated in the first round are expected to throw their support behind him. For Lula, the challenge is to consolidate his base and persuade undecided voters that the stakes are as high as he claims.
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