fitri-handayani
Rebel authorities in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region announced on Sunday that their forces have temporarily vacated Mekelle, the regional capital, as advancing federal troops and their allies close in on the city. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which has governed the region for years, described the relocation as a precautionary measure aimed at shielding civilians from the dangers of urban combat.
The withdrawal represents one of the most dramatic turns in the renewed conflict, which has been building for months between the TPLF and Ethiopia's national army, backed by allied militia fighters. Two residents inside Mekelle confirmed to the BBC that pro-government forces had taken control of the city and that TPLF units had left. One of those residents also reported that mobile phone networks appeared to be working again in several parts of the capital, suggesting a tentative return of basic services after a period of disruption.
The TPLF said its decision to pull back was driven by fears for the safety of ordinary people living in Mekelle, a city of hundreds of thousands that has already endured enormous suffering in recent years. By ceding the urban centre without a fight, the rebel leadership may hope to avoid the kind of devastating street-to-street battles that characterised earlier phases of the conflict and that left deep scars on the region's population.
Fighting has flared across parts of Tigray as well as the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara in recent weeks, shattering a fragile calm that had held since 2022. That year, the African Union brokered a peace agreement known as the Pretoria Agreement, which ended a brutal two-year civil war between the TPLF and the federal government. The deal was hailed at the time as a breakthrough that could stabilise Ethiopia's north, but relations between the two sides have deteriorated sharply over the past six months, with each accusing the other of violating the terms of the accord.
The collapse in trust has accelerated rapidly. Last month, the TPLF joined forces with six other armed movements, including the Fano militia based in Amhara, to create a new alliance whose declared aim is to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government from power. That coalition has transformed what had been a regional dispute into a broader challenge to federal authority, raising the stakes for Addis Ababa and complicating any path back to negotiations.
The human cost of the previous war remains staggering. The African Union's mediator at the time estimated that some 600,000 people died during the two-year conflict, making it one of the deadliest in the world this century. The fighting also pushed Tigray to the brink of famine, and the region's residents have spent the years since trying to recover from the destruction of hospitals, schools and farmland. The prospect of another prolonged war is therefore particularly alarming for communities that have barely begun to rebuild.
Observers warn that the latest escalation could further destabilise the Horn of Africa, a region already grappling with multiple crises. A full-scale resumption of hostilities in Ethiopia, Africa's second most populous country, carries the risk of drawing in neighbouring states and worsening an already volatile security environment. The speed with which the rebels have lost control of Mekelle has added to the sense of uncertainty, leaving analysts to question whether the TPLF is regrouping or genuinely in retreat.
International reaction has been swift. The US Department of State urged all sides to exercise restraint and to pursue dialogue, issuing its appeal ahead of a diplomatic meeting scheduled for Sunday in Egypt. That gathering was set to bring together leaders from some of Ethiopia's neighbours to discuss the conflict, underscoring the wider regional anxiety about where the fighting might lead.
Diplomatic tensions have also spilled over into open ruptures between capitals. On Friday, Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic relations after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of supporting the new rebel alliance, an allegation Eritrea denied. Ethiopia has additionally accused Egypt of backing the insurgents, a charge that led to the expulsion of an Egyptian diplomat. Cairo responded in kind, ordering an Ethiopian embassy official to leave within the same period. These tit-for-tat expulsions have deepened suspicions and narrowed the space for mediation.
The humanitarian picture is growing more precarious by the day. The United Nations has warned that the deteriorating security situation in northern Ethiopia is severely disrupting relief operations, and it has called on all parties to guarantee safe and unhindered access to people in need. Aid agencies fear that renewed fighting will once again cut off supply routes, leaving vulnerable populations without food, medicine or clean water.
For the residents of Mekelle, the arrival of pro-government forces marks a new and uncertain chapter. The restoration of mobile phone services in some areas may offer a small measure of relief, allowing families to reconnect and information to circulate, but it is far from a guarantee of stability. Much will depend on whether the federal advance continues into the countryside, where TPLF fighters and allied militias remain active.
Questions also linger over the political future of Tigray. If the TPLF has indeed abandoned the regional capital, its ability to govern the region and to speak for its population could be seriously diminished. Yet the movement has shown resilience before, and its new alliance with other armed groups suggests it intends to remain a central player in Ethiopia's turbulent political landscape.
Whether the current fighting spirals into a wider war or pulls both sides back toward the negotiating table may now rest on the diplomatic efforts underway. The Pretoria Agreement proved that a negotiated settlement is possible, but it also showed how quickly such arrangements can unravel when grievances go unaddressed. With regional powers watching closely and humanitarian conditions worsening, the next few days could prove decisive for Tigray and for the stability of the entire Horn of Africa.
Comments (0)