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When Vladimir Putin addressed Russia's parliament this week, the reception was as warm as it was predictable. The legislative election held last month produced a State Duma more loyal to the Kremlin than at any point in recent memory, with the ruling United Russia party securing a larger bloc of lawmakers than ever before. That outcome gives Putin a parliament that will approve his decisions rather than question them.
The Kremlin can present the vote as a sweeping mandate from the Russian public, though the election was tightly controlled and offered voters no genuine alternative to the ruling party. The more pressing question is what Putin intends to do with that mandate. There is little indication that he plans to use it to wind down the conflict he calls a special military operation. Instead, current signals suggest further escalation in Ukraine and heightened tensions with Europe.
On Thursday, observers will watch Putin's appearance at the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow for clues about his intentions. The annual foreign policy forum has traditionally served as a stage for the Russian president to outline his worldview, and his speeches there have often provided rare insight into his strategic thinking. Analysts will be listening for any hint that he might be prepared to halt the war, or whether he will double down on his current course.
As things stand, everything points toward a continuation of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That is despite the enormous battlefield losses Russian forces have suffered and the growing strain on Russia's economy. Putin's public statements continue to convey confidence that Russia can achieve a military victory, a position that appears to leave little room for compromise or negotiation.
According to Russian media reporting, Moscow is encouraged by Ukraine's shortage of air defence missiles. Russian officials and commentators are said to expect that intensified strikes this winter will increase pressure on the Ukrainian population. Kyiv has acknowledged the difficulty of intercepting Russia's ballistic missiles and its new jet-powered drones, which have been launched against Ukrainian targets on a near-daily basis.
Beyond the battlefield, the Kremlin has made clear it wants European states to cut their military and financial support for Ukraine. Moscow argues that such backing is prolonging the war and standing in the way of a Russian victory. Western officials believe Russia has been sending increasingly overt signals to that effect, accusing Moscow of waging an escalating hybrid campaign against European countries.
Those accusations include cyber-attacks, acts of sabotage, and Russian drones violating European airspace. In Germany, a drone carrying an explosive device was discovered close to Ukrainian cargo planes at Leipzig airport, an incident that Western officials cite as evidence of a covert campaign operating in the grey zone between peace and war.
In an interview this week, Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, dismissed the suggestion that his country is waging a hybrid war against Europe. He framed the issue differently, asking whether the question referred to Russia destroying drones and missiles that Britain and continental Europe are supplying to Ukraine. Lavrov argued that if European weapons are being used to strike Russia and Russia destroys them, then observers can label the situation however they choose. He added that he has no doubt this is a war Europe is waging against Russia, a position he said Moscow has held for a long time.
That stance has indeed been official Russian policy for some time. The Kremlin's narrative holds that the conflict in Ukraine amounts to a European war against Russia. It is a framing that omits the central fact that Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and continues to wage war there.
The open question is how far Russia might go to sever European support for Kyiv. Some Western analysts have wondered whether Moscow is actively preparing to initiate a military conflict with a NATO member state. That appears unlikely given the current state of the war. After more than four and a half years of fighting, Russia's army has still not managed to occupy the whole of Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, which lies directly next to Russia.
The more plausible interpretation, according to Western officials, is that fighting Europe is not the plan. Instead, the intention may be to frighten European governments into reducing their support for Kyiv. The messaging coming from Moscow appears designed to achieve exactly that effect.
One of the most explicit warnings has come from Sergei Karaganov, a prominent foreign policy strategist and honorary chairman of Russia's Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. He told the BBC that if Europe continues what he described as a European war with American help against Russia on Ukrainian territory, then sooner or later Russia will feel the need to escalate. According to his scenarios, the first series of blows would be conventional. But if Europe does not surrender, he said, Russia will unfortunately have to go nuclear, and there will be little left of some European countries.
When it was put to him that a nuclear strike would provoke a response from Europe and leave nothing of Russia, Karaganov rejected the premise. He said there would be no response from Europe, asking rhetorically whether Britain would attack Russia with nuclear weapons and expressing hope that such thinking does not prevail in London or Washington.
The remarks underscore the increasingly confrontational tone emanating from Moscow as the war approaches another winter. With a compliant parliament behind him and no sign of a shift in strategy, Putin appears positioned to continue the conflict rather than seek an exit. For Ukraine and its European allies, the coming months are likely to bring continued pressure on the battlefield and further attempts to weaken the political will sustaining Kyiv's defence.
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