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Spain’s primary intelligence service repeatedly alerted government authorities to impending mass border crossing attempts in the North African exclave of Ceuta days before a historic surge occurred in late July, according to a newly declassified government dossier. The release of forty sensitive official documents—encompassing real-time alerts, operational charts, and cross-agency intelligence assessments—provides an unprecedented look into the state’s internal communications leading up to the crisis.
The newly public materials present a direct challenge to the official narrative offered by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, whose administration has faced mounting scrutiny over the extent of advance intelligence it held prior to the sudden entry of tens of thousands of individuals. In the wake of the border breach, widespread street demonstrations have broken out across Spain, with domestic critics and political opponents accusing the administration of severe mismanagement and excessive deference toward Morocco.
Among the declassified records is a high-priority warning issued on July 29 by Spain’s National Intelligence Center, known as the CNI. Sent directly via WhatsApp to the Spanish government delegation stationed in Ceuta, the message warned of coordinated online campaigns calling for an organized breach of the border barrier and coastal maritime routes at 8:00 p.m. the following day.
To emphasize the potential magnitude of the mobilization, intelligence analysts pointed out the substantial digital reach of the organizers. The agency’s alert highlighted that the calls were circulating across two distinct social media channels boasting a collective following of approximately 180,000 users, underscoring the expansive reach and mobilizing power behind the planned action.
The CNI simultaneously coordinated with other security branches within the Spanish state apparatus to ensure operational awareness. That same day, intelligence officers dispatched parallel warnings to the Civil Guard, cautioning the national police force about the existence of multiple discussion groups across Facebook and WhatsApp actively encouraging collective border crossing attempts.
Spanish intelligence also extended its warnings across the border to Moroccan security services on July 29. The communication advised Moroccan counterparts of online planning directed at scaling the perimeter fencing separating Ceuta from Morocco or circumventing the barriers by swimming, specifically noting that participants sought to exploit the Moroccan national holiday of Throne Day on July 30.
The anticipated influx materialized rapidly on July 30, initiating a chaotic two-day period in which more than 72,000 individuals poured across the frontier into the Spanish city. The sheer volume of arrivals quickly overwhelmed local border infrastructure and operational personnel tasked with managing security along the perimeter.
As the situation escalated, Spain’s Ministry of Defense compiled an internal intelligence assessment on July 30 evaluating the conduct of Moroccan border units. The resulting defense report observed that Moroccan security personnel acted passively and demonstrated negligence in restraining individuals heading toward the frontier, raising serious concerns regarding regional security cooperation.
The defense assessment further warned of potential geopolitical motives behind the lack of intervention on the Moroccan side of the border. Analysts stated in the report that Spanish authorities could not dismiss the possibility that Morocco might seek to take advantage of the emerging turmoil in Ceuta to advance its own broader strategic interests in the region.
When approached by journalists for a response regarding the declassified intelligence documents and allegations of operational passivity, Morocco’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately provide comment.
Prime Minister Sánchez firmly defended his administration's conduct following the release of the files on Wednesday, rejecting assertions that the documents demonstrated foresight of the unprecedented scale that materialized between July 30 and July 31. In a statement published on the social media platform X, Sánchez maintained that while officials monitored the online campaign, the data available prior to the event did not indicate the eventual magnitude, nature, or probability of the mass crossing.
The Prime Minister’s defensive posture follows earlier statements in which he asserted there was no definitive evidence demonstrating that Moroccan authorities had deliberately orchestrated the incident. That stance drew fierce political backlash, particularly after a leaked police dossier emerged alleging that Moroccan law enforcement officers had played an active role in the episode.
The crisis had already begun to manifest in smaller numbers in the days leading up to the massive rush, when hundreds of individuals successfully swam across the maritime border into Ceuta. Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska acknowledged those earlier arrivals at the time, describing the circumstances as an exceptional situation that state authorities were handling with the permanent security assets already stationed in the exclave.
Weeks after the primary border breach, Ceuta remains gripped by a prolonged humanitarian crisis as municipal and national resources struggle under the weight of remaining arrivals. The national government estimates that roughly 5,000 migrants remain within the small exclave, whereas local authorities calculate the figure to be as high as 10,000 individuals, many of whom are unaccompanied minors residing in makeshift encampments, public thoroughfares, and local beaches.
The declassification of these records comes as part of a wider commitment by Sánchez to provide transparency regarding major border incidents, including Spain’s deadliest mass crossing on record, where non-governmental organizations reported that more than 140 migrants lost their lives. The released files collectively paint a picture of escalating intelligence indicators that foreshadowed an overwhelming surge on the Ceuta border.
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