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Newly declassified intelligence files have revealed that Spain’s premier spy agency alerted government officials about coordinated plans for mass border crossings into the North African enclave of Ceuta just hours before tens of thousands of individuals breached the perimeter in late July.
The disclosure stems from a release of 40 official records made public following mounting scrutiny and persistent demonstrations in the enclave. The documentation outlines how Spain's National Intelligence Center, known as the CNI, closely tracked digital mobilization efforts prior to the border crisis that rapidly overwhelmed local infrastructure.
According to the documents, the CNI dispatched an urgent warning via WhatsApp on July 29 to the Spanish government's central delegation based in Ceuta. The transmission specifically cautioned that online organizing campaigns were calling on participants to stage a synchronized assault against the border fence and along maritime routes at 8:00 p.m. the following evening.
Intelligence analysts highlighted the extensive reach of the online campaign, emphasizing to regional administrators that two distinct social media channels had amassed a combined following of approximately 180,000 users. The agency cited these figures directly in its communication to illustrate the substantial scope and potential momentum behind the impending crossing attempt.
In addition to alerting domestic administrators, Spanish intelligence shared its findings on July 29 with Moroccan security counterparts, specifically the DGST and DGED agencies. The notifications cautioned that prospective migrants and asylum seekers planned to scale the land barriers or swim around maritime checkpoints, potentially capitalizing on reduced security postures during Morocco’s national Throne Day celebrations on July 30.
Despite the advance alerts, the situation quickly escalated into an unprecedented humanitarian and logistical emergency. Beginning on July 30, a massive wave of more than 72,000 people crossed over the border from Morocco into the Spanish territory within a 48-hour window.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez publicly pushed back against assertions that the declassified intelligence provided actionable forewarning of a crisis on such a vast scale. Defending his administration's response, Sanchez maintained that monitoring online discourse does not inherently forecast the exact severity or execution of such events.
Writing on the social media platform X, Sanchez stated that while multiple state institutions were aware of the digital campaign and monitored its progress, the information available prior to the surge in no way served as an accurate indicator of the overwhelming magnitude, nature, or probability of the crossings that unfolded between July 30 and 31.
The intelligence release has also renewed focus on the conduct of Moroccan border security forces. While Sanchez had previously asserted there was no definitive evidence demonstrating direct Moroccan complicity, a leaked police dossier from July pointed to complete permissiveness among Moroccan border guards as large crowds gathered.
An intelligence assessment compiled by the CNI at midday on July 30 evaluated Rabat’s posture, concluding that Moroccan authorities were highly likely not actively orchestrating the migratory movement. However, the agency observed that Moroccan security personnel operated in an undeniably passive and negligent manner throughout the unfolding events.
The CNI noted that Moroccan authorities failed to execute a proactive operational strategy once crowd control deteriorated, limiting their intervention to the deployment of a few riot control detachments. The memo recorded that large groups had already congregated along the shoreline on the evening of July 29 waiting to enter the water.
According to the intelligence logs, the reinforced presence of Moroccan gendarmes and police proved wholly insufficient to contain the surging crowds. That same night, hundreds of individuals successfully swam around the perimeter barriers into Spanish territory before the daytime rush began.
More than a month after the late-July surge, Ceuta continues to face severe strain. Spain’s central government estimates that approximately 5,000 migrants and asylum seekers remain in the enclave, including around 1,200 unaccompanied minors. Local authorities, however, estimate the remaining population could be as high as 10,000 people residing within the enclave, which has a baseline population of roughly 84,000.
In response to the emergency, the central government in Madrid has allocated $357 million in financial assistance to manage the fallout and support local services, as numerous individuals remain without permanent shelter across the small coastal city.
The handling of the border emergency has triggered significant domestic unrest and political contention. Residents in Ceuta have staged near-daily demonstrations, accompanied by broader rallies outside town halls across Spain, protesting the state's border management and emergency preparedness.
Spain's parliamentary opposition has seized upon the declassified material to harshly criticize the Sanchez administration. Ester Munoz, spokeswoman for the conservative Popular Party in parliament, accused leadership of gross inaction, telling reporters that the government possessed comprehensive advance information yet failed to take adequate measures to safeguard the enclave.
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