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The British government has confirmed it is winding down a flagship pilot agreement with France that allowed it to send back some small boat arrivals while accepting an equal number of people from France with genuine claims to enter the UK. The arrangement, commonly referred to as the "one in, one out" scheme, had been in operation for just over a year and has now ceased processing new cases.
Under the terms of the pilot, Britain could return migrants who had crossed the English Channel in small boats, provided it simultaneously took in the same number of individuals from France who were deemed to have a legitimate right to come to Britain. The reciprocal structure was designed to deter crossings by signalling that arrival in the UK would not automatically secure a permanent foothold.
The scheme's scale, however, fell well short of expectations. Only about 1,500 people were removed to France during the entire period the pilot operated. The BBC understands that ministers would have preferred the arrangement to continue, but concluded it had not grown to the size needed to justify its retention.
A Home Office spokesperson confirmed the change, stating that the pilot with France to remove asylum seekers in exchange for an equal number of legal migrants is "no longer processing new cases." The spokesperson added that flights would continue in the coming weeks to remove small boat migrants, and that lessons drawn from the pilot would be used to speed up the removal of those with no right to remain in the UK.
The department also stressed that cooperation with France on tackling small boat crossings would persist. According to the spokesperson, "real progress" has been achieved, with arrival numbers significantly lower than the previous year. The French Interior Ministry, for its part, told the BBC that discussions are ongoing with the British side about the terms of the agreement's termination.
The numbers help explain why the pilot struggled to scale up. Between 1 January and 27 September 2026, 19,135 people crossed the Channel by small boat from France, a figure that is 42% lower than the same period in 2025, when 32,188 made the journey. Since 2020, such crossings have become the most common method by which people are detected entering the UK illegally.
Nearly everyone who arrives by small boat claims asylum, and under international law they are permitted to remain in the country while their application is assessed. Small boat arrivals accounted for 40% of asylum applications between July 2025 and June 2026, illustrating how central the route has become to Britain's asylum system even as overall numbers have declined.
Recent data also shows how the boats themselves have changed. Vessels that arrived between 28 September 2025 and 27 September 2026 carried an average of 67 people each, more than double the figure recorded in 2021. Experts say the overcrowding makes crossings increasingly dangerous. According to the United Nations, at least 84 people died attempting to cross the Channel in 2024.
To put the scale in context, small boat arrivals represent roughly 5% of total immigration into the UK between January 2025 and December 2025. The government has repeatedly pledged to "smash the gangs" responsible for organising the crossings, arguing that disrupting criminal networks is the most effective way to reduce the numbers.
The profile of those arriving has also drawn attention. People from Eritrea made up 18% of all arrivals between July 2025 and June 2026. The top five countries of origin during that period were Eritrea, with 5,875 arrivals detected; Sudan, with 4,191; Afghanistan, with 4,042; Somalia, with 3,901; and Iran, with 3,657. Home Office figures covering January to December 2025 indicate that at least 2,335 people who arrived by small boat were identified as potential victims of human trafficking or other forms of modern slavery.
The Channel route is not the only unauthorised entry method. Between July 2025 and June 2026, another 4,712 people were detected entering the UK without permission by other means, including hiding in vehicles, travelling on ferries, or arriving through airports — a decline of 17% compared with the previous year. The total number of people who remain in the UK illegally after arriving on valid work or study visas is not known.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood acknowledged earlier this month that the scheme had "not been without its challenges," telling MPs that the numbers involved remained relatively small. She noted that scaling up removals into the French system on a large weekly basis proved operationally difficult. At the same time, she pointed out that the UN and other agencies had reported that some migrants were deterred from boarding small boats because they believed the "one in, one out" scheme offered a chance of acceptance.
That deterrent effect, however limited, is now removed. The decision to scrap the pilot leaves the government relying on other tools, including continued joint work with France, deportation flights, and efforts to disrupt smuggling networks. Whether those measures can sustain the recent 42% drop in crossings — or whether the decline reflects other factors such as weather, French enforcement, or shifting migration patterns — remains an open question for ministers as they confront one of the most politically sensitive issues in British politics.
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